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Posted: 10:39 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2012
By Jamie Dupree
There are ten 'swing states' at this point in the race for the White House - eleven if you want to include Pennsylvania - but a glance at the schedules for President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney may help us eliminate a few of those states.
For example, the President has not been to North Carolina since the Democratic convention ended in early September, and signs are the GOP is heading for victory in the Tar Heel State - there have been no plans for the President to stop in North Carolina this week.
Also not on the itinerary for either candidate has been Michigan, where the President has a seemingly solid 4-5 point lead over Romney; if Republicans thought they had a chance to turn things around in Michigan, they would have their candidate make some stops in the state, and would spend some ad money there.
The schedule doesn't show any Romney visits or ad money from the campaign. Advantage Obama.
What about Pennsylvania? Republicans have started to move resources into Pennsylvania to see if the GOP can spin a late election upset - so far though, there isn't a stop planned by Romney in the Keystone State, or any advertising buys.
If Romney doesn't campaign there, a victory seems unlikely. If Romney doesn't buy some ad time there, it's hard to see how he jumps late in the polls in the Keystone State.
Both campaigns are spending time this week in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Florida and Virginia - those are true battlegrounds.
The President will be in New Hampshire on Saturday, which means the Democratic High Command must be a bit worried about the state of the race there.
Not included yet is Wisconsin, where the President enjoys a narrow lead in the polls; that is Paul Ryan's home state, so one would think he will get in some more campaign time there - whether Romney shows up is unclear.
Romney's path to victory seems to include just one basic option - win in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, and then hope to add in Ohio and Colorado.
But if Romney cannot win Ohio, then he will need something like Wisconsin.
There isn't much time left, but there aren't many states in play either.
Jamie Dupree is the Radio News Director of the Washington Bureau of the Cox Media Group and writes the Washington Insider blog.
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